Ratings: cbbConfetti's own, built from the games, box scores and rosters of CollegeBasketballData.com, which also supplies the lines.
Our ratings are our own, computed from every Division I game; the tempo-free, opponent-adjusted approach behind them was pioneered by Ken Pomeroy.
PAA (Points Above Average) is the rating we show: points per game better than an average Division I team on a neutral floor. Offense is points scored per 100 possessions and Defense points allowed per 100 possessions, both against an average opponent; Pace is possessions per 40 minutes.
Poll ranks are the Associated Press poll and the USA TODAY Sports coaches poll, by way of CollegeBasketballData.com: rank only. cbbConfetti is not affiliated with either.
Each conference's remaining regular-season games are played 40,000 times with the matchup's win chance, home court included. Each run first draws every team's strength around its rating, because a rating is an estimate. First place counts shared titles. Seeds go by conference record, then the games among the tied teams, then a draw. On the 2022 to 2026 seasons, which the fit never saw, the chances beat both picking by rating order and treating every team as equal, and they matched how often teams finished first. Before the season the stand-in for the preseason rating was last season's.
Points Above Average (PAA) is a team's rating per 100 possessions as points per game against an average team on a neutral floor at the season's average pace, so the difference between two teams' PAA is about the spread between them on a neutral floor.
Every game's win chance and projected score use the season's current ratings. The home team gets the home court edge above; a neutral site gets none. Games appear without them until the season has ratings.
Strength of schedule: the average PAA of a team's Division I opponents, and the wins a team rated as the average of the top 25 would expect against the same games at the same sites. Rank 1 is the hardest.
Games to circle: the 20 unplayed non-conference games with the highest PAA of the home team plus PAA of the visitor minus the projected margin, all in points.